nber recession dating committee

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The committee maintains a chronology of the U. In its meeting, the committee determined that the U. Previously, the committee had determined that the economy reached a peak of activity in July The committee thus determined that the recession ended in March and that an expansion began at that time. The committee had waited to nber recession dating committee the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in July The committee noted that the broadest measure of economic activity -- gross domestic product in constant dollars -- had finally surpassed its previous peak by the third quarter of

The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough nber recession dating committee a peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in Marchending a record-long expansion that began in The most recent trough occurred in Novemberinaugurating an expansion.

This report is also available as a PDF file. The peak marks the onset of a recession in the business cycle chronology maintained by the Bureau. In the opinion of the committee, there is no doubt that the U. All the indicators traditionally considered are well below their peaks.
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This report is also available as a PDF file. The current U. The committee noted that the various indicators of economic activity normally used to determine the month of the business cycle peak were generally flat during the summer of Each of the major indicators reached a peak nber recession dating committee a different month. During the summer, the month-to-month changes in these indicators were small. Nonfarm payroll employment reached a peak in June. Real personal income peaked in July. Real manufacturing and trade sales pealced in August. The index of industrial production peaked in September.

The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recession or expansion. The period from a peak to a trough is a recession and the period from a trough to a peak is an expansion. According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in Marchending a record-long expansion that began in The most recent trough occurred in Novemberinaugurating an expansion. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A nber recession dating committee begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. In choosing the dates of business-cycle turning points, we follow standard procedures to assure continuity in the chronology.

The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years. In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth. The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction. The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in , when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in was not a continuation of the one that began in , but rather a separate full recession.
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