business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research

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This report is also available as a PDF file. The peak marks the onset of a recession in the business cycle chronology maintained by the Bureau. In the opinion of the committee, there is no doubt that the U. All the indicators traditionally business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research are well below their peaks. Industrial production in November was Employees on nonagricultural payrolls were 91, in November, as compared to 92, in September.

This report is also available as a PDF file. The current U. The committee noted that the various indicators of economic activity normally used to determine the month of the business cycle peak were generally flat during business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research summer of Each of the major indicators reached a peak in a different month. During the summer, the month-to-month changes in these indicators were small. Nonfarm payroll employment reached a peak in June. Real personal income peaked in July.

This report is also available as a PDF file. Earlier indications of. Although forecasters are now virtually unanimous in predicting a recession in early ,the Committee's judgments in identifying turning points are based only on actual data not on forecasts. The Committee deferred identifying a peak in the current U. Some of the considerations underlying the Committee's decision are the following: 1 early indications are that real GNP has risen in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter; 2 reported declines in industrial production so far are quite small; 3 employment is continuing to rise and unemployment is still just above its recent low of 5. The Committee plans to meet again in March or April.
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Business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research
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The committee maintains a chronology of the U. In its meeting, business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research committee determined that the U. Previously, the committee had determined that the economy reached a peak of activity in July The committee thus determined that the recession ended in March and that an expansion began at that time. The committee had waited to make the determination of the trough date until it was confident that any future downturn in the economy would be considered a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in July

This report is business cycle dating committee national bureau of economic research available as a PDF file. Unless there is an extraordinarily sharp and quick reversal of activity, this peak will mark the onset of a recession. The Committee examined a wide variety of data on the economy in reaching its judgement that the peak occurred in January. Some of the major indicators which reached their cyclical peaks in January are total industrial production, retail sales in constant dollars, and nonfarm employee hours. Other indicators reached their peaks just before or just after January. Total real personal income peaked in December Employment reached its highest value in February Since February, every cyclical indicator has declined sharply.

The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates months and quarters of U. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the s lasted months.
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